TAKEAWAYS | MLS Is Back!
LAFC returns to MLS play with a resounding 4-0 thumping of the Rapids at BMO Stadium.
Mario González is going to be just fine. And I saw that fully admitting a quality striker should find the back of the net with at least one of the two (maybe two and a half) big chances he had against Colorado. But trust me on this one.
Don’t get too caught up in the binary thinking of good strikers equal goals; no goals equals bad strikers. Especially, considering González has played a total of 151 minutes for LAFC.
González took four shots less than 10 minutes into the match with Colorado. Already, I’m optimistic about a striker with that shot volume. In this low-scoring sport that we love, it’s a numbers game. A striker playing consistently and consistently taking shots is likelier to score than the “lethal” striker who relies on the odd chance or two per game.
According to FBref.com, González generated 0.9 xG with his four shots. In other words, the sum total of the quality of his chances historically would have netted nearly a goal based solely on the type and location of the shots.
You might be thinking, “Well, that proves my point! He can’t score!” But first, I’d refer you back to the top: sample size and getting chances are better predictors of success than a striker who scores on each of his first four shots with a team. And we’re not in a vacuum. There are 10 other players plus a goalkeeper trying to keep González from scoring.
Take González’s first attempt in the third minute against Colorado. Played through by Carlos Vela, González took a right-footed shot from 12 yards out and just right of dead-center of the box with just the goalkeeper to beat. Taking into account the location, the attempt registered .46 xG aka a “big chance” by any standard. Applying another layer, the Post-Shot Expected Goals (PSxG) – a measure of the shot’s quality, taking into account its height, trajectory, and location on goal – jumped to .69. In other words, just by getting on the end of Vela’s pass, González had a 46 percent chance of scoring according to the model. The quality of his subsequent shot raised the percentage from 46 to 69 (nice) percent likelihood of scoring. This is all a nerdy way of saying Colorado goalkeeper Marko Illić made a good save.
In less than two matches worth of minutes, González has demonstrated an ability to be in the right place to generate quality scoring opportunities and quality shots. His technique raises the value of those shots aka finishing. That’s without taking into account the other aspects of his game (hold-up play, defensive qualities, occupying defenders), which will talk more about later. He’s just missing the goals to go with it in this game. So like I said, he’ll be fine. Those goals will come.
Here are the Takeaways from LAFC’s 4-0 victory over the Colorado Rapids:
Kill ‘Em In Transition
Another number for you: 68.
LAFC is top of MLS in “direct attacks” according to data from OPTA Analyst powered by Stats Perfrom. A direct attack is a different way of saying attacking in transition. OPTA defines direct attacks as “the number of open play sequences that starts just inside the team's own half and has at least 50% of movement towards the opposition's goal and ends in a shot or a touch in the opposition box.”
Think of it this way. When the opponent loses the ball in your half, it’s a transitional moment for both teams. The team winning the ball has to decide whether to transition to attack or regroup with the ball. The opponent can defend where they are or drop back to organize their defense. Teams that opt for direct attacks see it as a chance to go at the opponent before they are set defensively. And LAFC does this more often than any team in MLS.
Now, if I have access to those kinds of numbers, you know Colorado Rapids head coach Robin Fraser does as well – and let’s be honest, he’s well aware of what LAFC can do just by watching tape. His solution was setting his team up with five defenders, including three center backs to protect against transition moments.
LAFC head coach Steve Cherundolo countered this move by positioning his front three attackers high up the pitch when the Rapids attacked. Essentially it was 3v3 in that area. Ripe for transition. Fraser’s hope was that his wingbacks would force LAFC wide attackers to provide additional cover in wide areas, giving his backline a numerical and tactical advantage when LAFC won the ball in its half. But LAFC's backline was brave and masterful on the night.
After the match, Cherundolo made a point to commend his team for defending forward. The backline squeezed Colorado and constricted the space the wingbacks had to run into. Fullbacks Ryan Hollingshead and Sergi Palencia jumped numerous passes to the wingbacks. The resulting turnovers cut Colorado’s wingbacks out of the equation in transition. They couldn’t provide cover to Colorado’s centerbacks against LAFC’s attacks.
The level of talent LAFC has on its front line already puts opponents in serious danger when the numbers are even. With Mateusz Bogusz ready and willing to join the attack at the hint of a turnover, Colorado was desperately outnumbered and overrun throughout the entire first half.
Fraser adjusted in the second half by removing a center back and going with a flat back four in defense. The damage had already been done though. LAFC’s three goals in the first 36 minutes put the match to bed early.
Mario’s Other Attributes
Thierry Henry tells this story often and I always go back to it when thinking about strikers. At the time, he was at the height of his powers with Arsenal. Henry was like a cheat code back in those days. He could dribble, he had pace, could score with both feet, he was a threat from nearly anywhere on the pitch, basically, he was unplayable.
But there are going to be matches when a striker doesn’t score. As he tells it, he would be hard on himself after those matches. His coach at the time, Arsene Wenger, said something that Henry never forgot: What can you do when your team is not feeding you?
Henry said that challenge made him a better player, a better striker. Goals are the job of the striker but how they affect the game even when they don’t score is the difference between a good and great striker.
It remains to be seen where Mario González will fall on that spectrum for LAFC. But in a match where he probably should have scored, he did still had an impact.
We saw it on the first goal. González received the ball near midfield with his back to goal and his marker draped all over him. The two players wrestle for position and the ball but González has the strength and balance to keep himself between the ball and the defender long enough to roll the ball with the sole of his boot to Vela. Just like that, LAFC is off and running.
González gives LAFC a new wrinkle to its transition game. He’s a safe outlet for LAFC and strong enough to deal with defenders while also having the presence of mind to lay the ball off to a teammate.
While that play won’t show up on the scoresheet, it’s a valuable aspect of González’s game. And it trickles down. I think we saw Carlos Vela assume the role of a playmaker more often in this match because he had the likes of González and Dénis Bouanga to run off of him.
As the MLS season reaches the stretch run and gets to the playoffs, more teams will try to find ways to negate LAFC’s best attributes. In my mind, that means we’ll see opponents sitting deeper and not allowing LAFC to run as much in transition.
Despite not scoring, González has shown his propensity to get into dangerous areas. If he can also balance out LAFC’s front line with hold-up play, allowing Bouanga to run off of him and Vela to be a playmaker in the hole, LAFC is going to have solutions when teams adjust.
Coming Together
After seeing LAFC’s starting 11, I had this to say on Twitter X:
And it was indeed fun.
But just as exciting was LAFC’s bench. Maxime Crepeau was back in uniform once again. He’s been playing matches with LAFC2 after a return from his long-term injury. Mamadou Fall and Denil Maldonado weren’t needed in the 4-0 victory but they are exciting and capable young talents when defensive reinforcements are needed.
Kellyn Acosta, Filip Krastev, Stipe Biuk, Cristian Olivera, and Erik Dueñas replaced Timothy Tillman, Mateusz Bogusz, Carlos Vela, Mario Gonález, and Ilie Sánchez in the match. Steve Cherundolo had the luxury of using all five subs with the scoreline never in doubt but it also gave some insight into the bigger picture with LAFC heading into the season’s stretch run. And I gotta say, that bigger picture looks pretty good.
LAFC fans, especially this season, are acutely aware of both the need for depth and how MLS hampers teams in building it. But when you look at those subs, you don’t see as steep of a dropoff as most teams when they start getting into their third, fourth, and fifth change off the bench.
Between now and October 1, LAFC will play eight matches, including the Campeones Cup final against Tigres on September 27. The Black & Gold have shown when they are fresh and healthy, there isn’t a side in MLS, bar maybe the Miraculous Inter Messis of Miami, that can keep up with them.
The pieces are in place. LAFC has outscored opponents 18-1 in its last four game matches. If this is just a glimpse of what they can do with limited time together, imagine what they can accomplish come playoff time at BMO Stadium.
I agree 100 with you on Mario he is good and physical! , I also think Krastev is good would like to see more of him..I would love to see this line up, Hollingshead, Cheillini, Palacios, Ilie Sanchez, Bogusz on left midfield or center , Tillmam on the midcenter, and Krastev on the right, with Vela, Mario and Bounga at front..! Once the new guys fall into rhythm the team looks very very promising..!
Fun game. It’s incredible how dangerous this team is when they take a lead. Once the opposing team has to start pushing for an equalizer it feels like the floodgates open for LAFC.
Also incredible when you look at the depth chart and realize just how intense the competition is for minutes. Honestly, only Bouanga, Vela, Ilie, and Palacios seem like locked in starters. Would love to watch some of the Inter squad games.